Dutch in disarray over EU constitution

Anti-EU sentiment in France over the constitutional treaty is fuelling growing Dutch scepticism in the run up to the Netherlands referendum on June 1.

French opposition to the EU constitution, the latest opinion poll puts the no vote on 53 per cent, is having a ‘domino’ effect on Dutch voters, with around 70 per cent saying that they will abstain from voting.

The figures have shaken the main Dutch political parties who have previously said that they would need a minimum turnout of 30 per cent to validate any referendum outcome.

With deep uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the French vote, Dutch politicians are warning that unless the government takes action to stem anti-EU sentiment, the country could end up rejecting the constitution.

The French campaign is just one of a number of problems facing the yes camp in the Netherlands, with the five main political parties that support a yes vote failing to find a coherent voice or coordinate a high profile campaign, suggests FT Europe in a leading article.

The paper quotes former MEP, now deputy parliamentary leader of the Dutch centre left D66 party, Lousewies van der Laan’s concerns about the looming vote.

“I am seriously worried the Dutch will vote no.  A French no or a Dutch no means the treaty is dead.”

As in France, the no camp with strong Socialist backing is seeking to turn the referendum into a vote against EU policies including the sensitive issue of immigration and Turkish EU entry.

Others in the no camp are looking to turn the poll into a vote of confidence on the troubled centre right coalition government.

“There is a risk that the referendum will not be about the constitution but about whatever the no campaign wants” said van der Laan.  “No one is taking responsibility for the yes campaign and the clock stands at five to twelve.”

Dutch concerns may be academic though, if the French fail to ratify the treaty three days earlier on May 29.  The government has hinted that they may scrap their vote if the French call a no.

"The Treaty's legal position is very clear, if one country says no the Treaty falls,” said Dutch eurosceptic MEP Hans Blokland earlier last week.

“What purpose could there be in the Dutch going out to vote on a Constitution that no longer exists?”

However, Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot has vowed that the vote will take place regardless of the French outcome.

“If France votes no, then other countries must continue the fight for a yes, the more countries supporting the constitution, the better the chances we have of finding a solution,” said Bot.

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